The ČNB sets interest rates on Thursday: what it means for your mortgage

What does the ČNB decide on Thursday?

Where to set its interest rates, above all the two-week repo rate, its main rate; the others move with it. It's the seventh of eight rate meetings on the board's 2026 calendar, and one of the four a year that bring a new ČNB forecast, in its Monetary Policy Report. The decision goes up on cnb.cz at 14:30, and the board's press conference is broadcast live from 15:00. In June, the new rates applied from the next day.

Where does the rate stand, and how did it get there?

At 3.75%, since 19 June. The year began at 3.50%, and the board held it there in February, March and May.

On 18 June it raised the rate by 0.25 percentage points, by six votes to one. Its statement said core inflation had stayed elevated for six months with no tendency to fall, and pointed to faster growth in lending and to property prices.

In August the board held the rate unanimously, saying the June rise had brought the tightening it wanted. In September it held again, unanimously. Its statement said inflation had been near the 2% target since January 2024 and, by its staff's updated forecast, would rise for a while around the turn of the year; the board saw the risks on the upside. Then: "At the next meeting, the bank board will decide between stable and higher interest rates" (our translation).

Will the rate go up?

We won't know until the board votes, and we don't guess. On the record:

• A board member's view. Jakub Seidler, one of the seven, said in an interview Reuters published on 27 October: "I am inclined to back a standard 25-basis-point hike in November." He hadn't yet seen the staff's analysis, he said, and "even a potential hike in November I would not see as the beginning of a cycle." The ČNB published the interview.
• An economist's expectation. Jaromír Šindel, chief economist of the Czech Banking Association, which represents the banks, wrote on 29 October that the ČNB will probably raise the rate by a quarter of a point, to 4%.

Neither is a decision. Seven people vote on Thursday.

How does the repo rate reach your mortgage?

Mostly when your fixation ends, through what banks pay for money over the next fixed period, rather than through the repo rate itself.

A Czech mortgage runs for decades, but its rate is fixed only for a period, the fixation (fixace). Until it ends, your rate and payment stay as agreed, whatever the ČNB does. Then your bank offers a new rate (refixace), or you move the loan to another bank (refinancování), at the rates of that time.

Those rates follow the market more than the ČNB's rate of the day. "For a mortgage fixed for several years, the ČNB's current rate alone isn't enough of a guide to the loan's price," the Czech Banking Association's chief economist wrote on 8 October; what matters is "the price of money for the period the rate is fixed" (our translation). For a loan whose rate isn't fixed for long, he added, the ČNB's rate would matter more directly.

The two don't always move together. When the ČNB began raising rates in 2021, the market's reference rates reacted fast and mortgage rates rose sharply; after its cuts, they followed much more slowly, a ČNB economist found. We don't quote banks' offered rates: ask your bank, or a mortgage adviser, on the day.

What does it mean if you rent or buy?

If you're buying a home to live in, Thursday doesn't change how much a bank may lend: at most 80% of the home's value, or 90% if you're under 36. There's no binding cap on your debt or repayments against income (DTI and DSTI), but banks must check that you can repay. The mortgage calculator works out what you could borrow, and the costs of buying a flat come on top. Buying as a foreigner? See getting a mortgage as a foreigner.

If you're buying to let, the ČNB has recommended since 1 April 2026 that banks lend at most 70% of the value, and keep your total debt within seven times your yearly net income. The same goes for a third or further home. The rental yield calculator runs the numbers.

If your fixation ends in 2026 or 2027, the rates of that time set your new one. Your bank must send the new rate and payment at least three months before the end, and for three months after that letter you can repay or move the loan without a fee. The ČNB's economists expected many loans taken in 2020–2022, at very low rates, to get a new rate between 2025 and 2028. Compare offers before the letter comes: refinancing a mortgage walks through each choice. A short next fixation brings the next fee-free window sooner; a long one keeps your payment the same for longer.

If you rent, the ČNB's rate doesn't change your rent. A landlord can raise it as your lease allows or, if the lease says nothing about rises, by a written proposal up to the usual rent for comparable homes in the area, at most 20% over three years; the rent-increase check tests one. The repo rate does set the default interest on a late payment, such as late rent or a late deposit refund, unless your lease sets another rate: the repo rate on the first day of the half-year in which it fell late, plus 8 percentage points. That's 11.75% a year for a payment that fell late between 1 July and 31 December 2026, and the rate on 1 January 2027 sets it for January to June. The deposit-return tool uses it, and rent or buy compares the two.

What happens next?

• Thursday 5 November, 14:30: the rate decision on cnb.cz, the press conference from 15:00 and the new forecast.
• Wednesday 25 November: the board's autumn meeting on financial stability, where it looks at the mortgage limits; the ČNB reviews mortgage lending at least twice a year. The decision is on cnb.cz at 15:00. In June, the board left the rules unchanged.
• Thursday 17 December: the last rate meeting of 2026.
• 1 January 2027: the repo rate that day sets the default interest for payments that fall late in the first half of the year.

Quick answers